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Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

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Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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5/6: J. Green: U 0.5 Blk ➕ D. Gafford: U 0.5 Stl

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

Daniel Gafford has just 1 steal over his last 9 games, and Josh Green has just one block over his last 12. But for some weird reason… neither of these completely nuke our multiplier, so not taking advantage of that would feel like a mistake.

4: N. Reid: O 16.5 Pts+Reb

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

No Minnesota player is hotter than Naz Ried in this series. He’s averaged 22.5 Pts+Reb per game, and we can still get this projection at 16.5. Don’t overthink it, I still like this number, even though we got it at 14.5 and cashed in Game 2.

3: L. Doncic: O 0.5 DD

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

Luka Doncic has been double-double MACHINE, with 10.8 rebounds per game over the last 5 games playing at home. That's 1.5 higher than his season average, and I expect his dominance on the boards to continue against Minnesota. They rank 8th-worst in offensive rebounding this season. Luka has also grabbed double-digit assists in 6 of his last 7 games.

2: A. Edwards: O 26.5 Pts

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

If you think Anthony Edwards is going quietly, you’re in for a long night. The Mavs have allowed the 3rd-most three-pointers per game at home to starting shooting guards. 26.5 is a gift on Underdog… and Sleeper is even discounting it to 20.5 for us.

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There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

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