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Welcome back to NBA Prop Drop.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

Conference Finals! My goal (especially early in the series) is to get the picks out a FULL DAY early so we can guarantee everyone in the community gets the best lines.

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But as always… the Newsletters Eat First 👨‍🍳

Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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5: J. McDaniels: O 0.5 Blk

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

Jaden McDaniels has been a DEFENSIVE FORCE. He's averaged 1.6 blocks per game over the last 5. This is a 0.9 increase from his season average. He's beat this number in 8 straight games and the streak should continue against a Dallas team that STRUGGLES with interior scoring.

4: A. Edwards: O 2.5 3PM

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

He has massively POSTIIVE HOME SPLITS from 3 point land, converting 3.6 threes per game in Minnesota. 1.2 higher than his season average and the Mavs allow the 5th-MOST attempts from deep. The Timberwolves' are the 3rd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA.

3: P. Washington: O 5.5 Reb

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

The Mavericks rank as the 4th-BEST offensive rebounding team in the NBA over the last 5 games. A big part of that is the rise of P.J. Washington. He's averaging 6.6 defensive boards per game over the last 5 games, a solid 2.0 bump from his season numbers.

2: L. Doncic: O 0.5 DD

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

He’s been a double-double MACHINE, with 10.6 defensive rebounds per game over his last 5. That's 2.2 higher than his season average and I expect his dominance on the boards to continue against Minnesota. They rank 5th-worst at home with only 8.8 offensive rebounds per game.

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Run good tonight!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

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