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Welcome back to NBA Prop Drop.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

We went 5-for-6 yesterday, nearly 10x’ing our money in Wolves/Mavs, but today we SWEEP!

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Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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3: A. Horford: O 10.5 Pts

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

I’ve been trying to tell you old man Horford’s points projection has been WAY-TOO-LOW lately. He’s averaged 14.4 per game over his last 5, attempting 8.4 per game from DEEP. That’s double the amount of attempts from three he averaged over the course of the season. The reason for this is Myles Turner ranks in the top 99th percentile in opposing centers three-point shots made. 10.5 points feels FREE tonight.

2: A. Nembhard: O 26.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

Because Tyrese Haliburton is questionable for Game 4, so despite sitting in a 0-3 hole, I expect the Pacers to continue to be cautious here with the same hamstring he injured earlier in the season. You know what that means right?Andrew Nembhard has averaged 31.4 PRA over his last 5 games without Haliburton in the lineup, and he obviously EXPLODED for 32 points in Game 3 as expected. The Celtics allow the 4th-MOST three-point attempts per game to starting shooting guards.

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Run good tonight!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

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