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Welcome back to NBA Prop Drop.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

Conference Finals! Ny goal (especially early in the series) is to get the picks out a FULL DAY early so we can guarantee everyone in the community gets the best lines.

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Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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5: D. White: O 16.5 Pts

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

The Pacers allow the MOST points to opposing shooting guards, setting the stage for Derrick White to have a huge Game 1. He's been AUTOMATIC lately, draining 3.7 threes per game in his last 10 games, significantly ABOVE his season average.

4: T. Haliburton: O 3.5 3PM

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

He’s has been ON FIRE from beyond the arc, hitting 4.0 threes per game over his last 10 games, 1.1 more than his season average. And the matchup is PRIME for Hali to continue his hot streak... the Celtics allow the MOST three-pointers to point guards. Boston has also been surprisingly bad on the boards, 6th-WORST in the NBA, so this locks in more chances for Haliburton to launch from deep.

3: A. Nembhard: O 0.5 3PM

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

I'm not exactly sure why, but we get Nembhard and McConnell with the same 3-point projection in Game 1, which is completely INSANE. Nembhard has converted 55% from deep over his last 5 games and the Celtics allow the 4th-MOST attempts to starting SGs. Oh yeah, he's dropped in at least one 3-pointer in every playoff game BUT ONE this year.

2: T. McConnell: U 0.5 3PM

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

McConnell has gone the other way, especially on the road, where he has converted just 23.8% of his 3 point shots. That's a BOTTOM-19th percentile stat. And he ATTEMPTED more than 1 from deep just once the entire 2nd round.

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Run good tonight!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

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