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Welcome back to NBA Prop Drop.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

We've SWEPT all our picks in at least 1 of MLB, NHL, or NBA for THREE STRAIGHT DAYS.

But Saturday's NBA SWEEP was followed up with a terrible day of basketball picks yesterday. Sorry about that, guys. Let's BOUNCE BACK!

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Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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3: A. Nesmith: U 12.5 Pts

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

I expect Aaron Nesmith to STRUGGLE tonight. New York has played at the NBA's SLOWEST pace, is the #1 rebounding team in the league, and also happens to have held opposing starting small forwards to the WORST field goal percentage and the 6th-fewest 3 pointers made... this 12.5 point projection is WAY TOO HIGH.

2: A. Nembhard: O 10.5 Pts

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

This is a projection he's beaten in 5 straight, shooting 63.2% from the field, a significant 12.3% bump over his season average. He's also played 35.8 minutes per game over this stretch. That's over 10 minutes more than his season average. The Knicks' defense has allowed the MOST points to opposing starting shooting guards in their home games this season. So with Nembhard’s hot hand and increased minutes, he has a GREAT CHANCE to smash this number.

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By joining both Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper (and remaining aligned with PrizePicks), I aim to tap into a wider range of daily specials and discounted lines, ensuring YOU get access to the best possible lines and enhance your betting strategy. This approach is all about offering you superior value and opportunities in your betting endeavors.

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Run good tonight!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

Thank you for joining us on this exciting sports betting journey. Feel free to join our community sweats on Twitter (X) — That’s where I drop exclusive giveaways for people who like posts and reply in the comments.

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