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Today’s Prop Drop:

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3: J. Murray: U 1.5 Steals

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

It’s Game 1, Nuggets vs. Timberwolves, and the number one play in my model may surprise you. It’s Jamal Murray less than 1.5 steals. Both teams have played at a bottom six pace over their last 20 games, so I expect to see fewer plays overall. Plus, Murray has failed to beat this projection in 8 straight games.

2: N. Reid: O 11.5 Pts+Reb

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

You may not know this, but the Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games when playing on the road. In the last 10 away games, Naz Reid took 12.8 field shots per game. This is 2.2 shots more than his yearly average. So his points plus rebounds projection is way too low at 11.5. Naz has surpassed this in 5 of his last 7 games.

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