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Welcome back to NBA Prop Drop.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

Following a SWEEP, we’ve gone 2-1 three straight nights. We’ve hit 70.1% of our picks over a CRAZY 12-5 run… but let’s get another 3-0 today!

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Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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3: B. Portis: U 12.5 Reb

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard likely sidelined for the Bucks, the focus shifts to Bobby Portis to pick up the slack. However, even with increased responsibilities, Portis faces tough dynamics against the Pacers. The Bucks have been playing at the SECOND-SLOWEST pace in the league recently, which limits opportunities across the board. Portis, known for his susceptibility to fouls, finds it challenging to stay on the court and capitalize on rebound opportunities. Despite the Pacers playing at a faster pace, Milwaukee's ongoing struggle on the offensive glass—ranked among the WORST in the league—suggests that Portis’s rebound numbers will likely fall LOWER than the projected 12.5 rebounds.

2: T. Maxey: U 29.5 Pts+Reb

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Tyrese Maxey's production takes a DIVE on the road, making the UNDER on his 29.5 Points + Rebounds prop a STEAL tonight. Despite Maxey's brilliance in early games, his road performances against the Knicks—a team that holds the title for the SLOWEST pace in the league—translate to fewer opportunities and lower stats across the board. Additionally, the Knicks, being the BEST offensive rebounding team, severely limit second-chance points, which hits Maxey’s rebounding numbers hard.

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