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Under Kings 👑 Welcome to NBA Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

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Okay, time to get into today’s NBA action.

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Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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3: D. DeRozan: U 28.5 Pts

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DeRozan is a STUD so less than 28.5 points may seem RISKY… but let’s dig deeper… because the Pistons matchup hints at a different outcome tonight. Detroit has transformed into one of the more challenging defenses for power forwards, particularly from deep, allowing the 2nd-FEWEST attempts to the position. And don’t forget, the Bulls run at the NBA’s 2nd-SLOWEST pace and are the 8th-LOWEST scoring offense in the league this year.

2: CJ McCollum: U 33.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

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Despite McCollum stepping up in Ingram's absence, facing the Kings shifts the narrative. They’ve played at the NBA’s 2nd-SLOWEST pace over their last 5 games, but have secured the MOST offensive rebounds in the league over that period… both of these factors will lead to fewer possessions and opportunities for McCollum. Plus, with the Pelicans being the 4th-LEAST AGGRESSIVE team from the three-point line on the road recently, and considering they're up against a Kings team that's locked down opposing starting guards to a mere 30.6% from beyond the arc, this 33.5 PRA projection is WAY-TOO-HIGH.

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Run good tonight!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

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