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Under Kings 👑 Welcome to NBA Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

We’re 19-11 over our last 30 picks for a 65% hit rate, which is solid this time of year with a lot of uncertainty and teams with nothing to play for, but yesterday was not good… going 1-2 so let’s bounce back!

SIDE NOTE: IT’S MASTERS WEEK ⬇️

But as always… the Newsletters Eat First 👨‍🍳

Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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3: K. Middleton: U 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

You may not know this, but the Bucks rank 7th-worst in in the league with just 9.5 offensive rebounds per game this year… a category Orlando ranks in the Top-10. With Middleton coming off an early exit in his last game due to a quadriceps injury, his effectiveness on the court could be hampered. Pair that with the Bucks' recent performances and matchup dynamics, I expect Middleton to have a tougher time filling the stat sheet tonight.

2: D. Lillard: U 27.5 Pts

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

He will take on a Magic team who has run at the 3rd-slowest offense in the league over the last 20 games, limiting possessions and opportunities for Lillard… they also happen to allow the 3rd-fewest foul shots and three-point attempts to the point guard position. The latter has been an issue already for Lillard, seeing his attempts from downtown drop from 11.3 to 8.6 this season. This projection is just way too high.

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Run good tonight!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

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