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Welcome to NBA Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

Under Kings 👑 … Had a tech issue this morning apolgies on this coming through later than usual. Let’s get right into it!

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Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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5: J. Harden: U 9.5 Ast

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

The Clippers and Trail Blazers are heading into one of the slowest-paced matchups, with both teams ranking in the bottom three of their respective venues. The Clippers’ status as the worst in offensive rebounding on the road lately seals the deal on limited assist opportunities for Harden.

4: Z. Williamson: U 38.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

Williamson hits the road where the Pelicans face the 3rd-slowest paced team, signaling fewer playmaking chances. The Pelicans' 5th-worst offensive rebounding performance recently cuts down extra scoring opportunities.

3: A. Edwards: U 6.5 Reb

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

The Timberwolves and Cavaliers are slowing things down, ranking among the bottom five in pace over their recent games. This snooze-fest scenario means fewer possessions and, by extension, rebound opportunities. Considering the Timberwolves' ranking as the 2nd-worst in offensive rebounding at home, the chances for Edwards to exceed this rebound total are slim.

2: A. Davis: U 42.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

Facing off against the 76ers, the SLOWEST paced team on the road recently, the Lakers will find it tough to keep their usual tempo. Despite Davis's dominance, the Lakers have been the absolute worst in offensive rebounds this season, squashing extra scoring chances. Given Davis's 3-point shooting struggles (in the 14th percentile), this total is just WAY TOO HIGH.

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There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

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