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Welcome to NBA Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

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Today’s Prop Drop:

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3: G. Allen: U 3.5 Three-PT made

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

Allen has been LIGHTING IT UP from downtown, but tonight's matchup against the Hawks flips the script. The Hawks have been the steel trap for three-point shooters, especially when they're the road team, allowing the 4th-fewest three-point attempts to starting SFs this season. Coupled with the Suns' pace at home, which ranks among the bottom 10 in the league for offensive rebounding, opportunities for Allen will be scarce. This matchup dynamic, pitting Allen against a defense that's tightened the screws on perimeter shooting, makes the under a clear lean for me.

2: N. Jokic: U 25.5 Pts

(Tail on Underdog) (Tail on Sleeper) (Tail on PrizePicks)

okic faces a Knicks team that plays at the league's slowest pace, a stark contrast to the Nuggets' preference for a higher tempo. This clash of styles, with the Knicks' ability to control the pace and dominate the offensive boards (best in the league), will likely limit Denver's possessions and, by extension, Jokic's scoring opportunities. Denver's struggle on the offensive glass, ranking among the league's bottom 5 recently, exacerbates this issue, making a high-scoring affair for Jokic less likely.

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