✅🏀 NBA Prop Drop (3/16)

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Welcome to NBA Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

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Ladder Challenge Update

Unfortunately, we did not move on to Day 3 of the Ladder Challenge (THIS IS HARD), but enjoying the difficulty level here and hope you guys will follow along.

This challenge will be a mix of PrizePicks alt lines and typically my favorite “play of the day” that anyone can benefit from closer to tipoff. Appreciate the feedback so far that PrizePicks is not available for everyone. I see you 👀

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4:30pm CST is best for late news and projection shifts. Road to $3,500 in 7 days continues 💪🏻

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Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so today is about getting the best action down quickly.

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3: K. Lowry: U 17.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

Lowry's combined prop line might seem low, especially for a player of his caliber, but the matchup dynamics and recent team performance scream UNDER. With the 76ers hosting the Hornets, it's critical to note Philly's recent scoring woes, ranking as the feeblest in the league over the last 5 games, and their snail-paced play, standing as the 2nd-slowest over their last 10. These factors significantly cap Lowry's potential output. Furthermore, Charlotte's defense has been stingy against opposing point guards, offering the 3rd-least free-throw attempts and the fewest field goal attempts this season. Given Lowry's decline in field goal attempts this season and the overall matchup dynamics, banking on the UNDER for his combined stats tonight is the move.

2: T. Haliburton: U 11.5 Ast

Despite Tyrese's phenomenal season, averaging a solid 11.4 assists per game, the Pacers are going toe-to-toe with the Brooklyn Nets, known for slowing the game down as the 4th-least up-tempo team over their last 10 games. This slow pace means fewer possessions, directly impacting Haliburton's ability to dish out assists. Moreover, Indiana's struggle on the offensive boards, ranking as the absolute worst in the league over the last 5 games, limits those crucial extra opportunities for scoring and assists. With the Nets' defensive structure and the Pacers' current form, this line is just WAY TOO HIGH for me.

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