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Welcome to NBA Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.

I wanted to highlight that I’m attacking NBA props in two waves, the Way-Too-Early wave (this email) and the Last-Minute-Triple wave (Twitter only).

Turn on notifications because I want you to get the last-minute picks.

Tuesday provides a great slate of games, so let’s not waste any more time.

As always… Newsletter Eats First.

Today’s Prop Drop:

NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so there will be days the full analysis will come out on Twitter, just to make sure I get these in your hands as quickly as possible.

• Speaking of Twitter, hit the 🔔 and turn on your alerts I run daily giveaways ranging from $50 to $500, sometimes I only choose from people engaging in the first 30 minutes!

• Tap the bet to tail on PrizePicks before the line moves

3. Z. Collins: O 23.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

🚀 It's time to take the OVER on Zach Collins! He's been ON FIRE from downtown, hitting 54.2% of his threes in recent games. This uptick in scoring efficiency is crucial, especially against a Bucks team that challenges perimeter shooters. Secondly, Collins faces a Bucks team that has been playing at the league's fastest pace at home over the last 15 games. This increase in game tempo means more possessions and, consequently, more opportunities for Collins to score, rebound, and assist. Despite some road game struggles, the Spurs' own fast pace and the expected high-tempo matchup against the Bucks offset concerns. The matchup against Brook Lopez, while tough, still presents Collins with high field goal attempt opportunities. While there are underlining factors that could limit his performance, the sheer number of opportunities in this high-pace game makes OVER on Collins a compelling, data-driven pick.

2. A. Simons: U 33.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

🔥 Anfernee Simons, while a scoring titan, faces a significant challenge to hit OVER on the 33.5 Pts + Reb + Ast line tonight. The stats reveal a complicated scenario: Simons boasts a commendable 24.0 points per game on his home court and high playing time. However, the Trail Blazers' recent slower game pace and the Suns' effective defensive posture against opposing PGs muddy the waters. The Suns have consistently limited scoring opportunities for opposing teams' PGs at home, a factor not to be overlooked. Additionally, Simons' tendency to commit fouls at home could curb his time on the court, further hindering his ability to rack up the combined stats needed. The confluence of these factors, especially the Suns' formidable defense and the Blazers' slower offensive tempo, makes an UNDER bet on Simons' combined stats a well-grounded and strategic choice.

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Run good tonight!

There are no guaranteed winners, but my promise to you is I will work tirelessly to bring you the best player prop bets, carefully researched and backed by data.

Thank you for joining us on this exciting sports betting journey. Feel free to join our community sweats on Twitter (X) — That’s where I drop exclusive giveaways for people who like posts and reply in the comments.