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- ✅🏀 NBA Prop Drop (12/18)
WE ARE BACK.
Welcome to NBA Prop Drop. Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NBA in fun ways.
Monday provides a great slate of games, so let’s not waste any more time.
But as always…
Official tagline poll (this is the only place to get my picks early so let's let people know what they are missing!) |
Today’s Prop Drop:
NBA betting lines move extremely quickly (player props are no different), so there will be days the full analysis will come out on Twitter, just to make sure I get these in your hands as quickly as possible.
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Tap the bet to tail on PrizePicks before the line moves
3. 🤑 James Harden: O 30.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
James Harden is ON FIRE this season, and tonight's matchup is a PRIME over spot. Harden ranks in the 88th percentile for 3-point shots with 2.4 per game and averages a hefty 33.3 minutes per game - talk about MAXIMUM IMPACT. Facing the Pacers, the fastest-paced offense this year, means even MORE opportunities for Harden to rack up points, rebounds, and assists. Plus, he's been a FREE-THROW MACHINE lately, hitting 6.4 per game over the last 5 – adding to his scoring prowess.
While the Clippers might be playing at a slower pace, Harden's HIGH USAGE and the Pacers' tendency to allow plenty of offensive boards (11.3 per game at home) sets up a PERFECT STORM for Harden to exceed expectations. His recent surge in defensive rebounds (5.8 per game in the last 5) just adds more fuel to the fire. Sure, the Pacers don't give up many fouls to starting PGs, but Harden's VERSATILITY and skill in creating shots and grabbing rebounds easily offset this minor setback.
2. 🔥 Collin Sexton: U 21.5 Pts
Buckle up for an UNEXPECTED TWIST tonight. Despite his recent HOT STREAK, the Under 21.5 points is the SMART PLAY here. Let's dive into the nitty-gritty: the Jazz, despite being top in offensive rebounds, are only scoring a measly 107.6 points per game over the last 10 games - that's 3rd-lowest in the league! Sure, Sexton's been LIGHTING IT UP with an average of 8.6 shots made from the field in the last 5 games, but the Nets play a SLOW GAME, ranking 5th-least up-tempo in the league recently, which could seriously limit scoring opportunities.
Now, consider the Nets' stingy defense on the road. They've been tough on opposing shooting guards, allowing a paltry 0.4 foul shots per game in their last 5 away games. This means Sexton's trips to the line could be FEWER THAN USUAL. Plus, with the Jazz's lower overall scoring trend, it's a TIGHT SQUEEZE for Sexton to surpass 21.5 points.
Here's the clincher: Sexton's technical fouls are up lately, a sign of potential distraction or frustration on the court. While he's been a KEY PLAYER for the Jazz, especially with Clarkson and George out, the Nets' defense and the Jazz's recent scoring drought are MAJOR HURDLES.
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